Accuweather says it best.
The track that Rita takes will depend on how this upper-level high moves, weakens and strengthens. Our current thoughts are that the high will remain strong and in place to keep Rita on a westward moving course through Thursday. Then we expect the high to either split or move eastward causing Rita to move west-northwest early Friday then more northwestward Friday night and Saturday. As stated, Rita will become a major hurricane within the next 12 hours. The hurricane might level off in intensity for a time as it moves through slightly cooler water. This cooler water appears to be in the same area that Katrina tracked over. Then as the hurricane moves due west it will be back over warmer waters similar to what helped Katrina intensify to a Cat 5 hurricane. We expect Rita to slowly turn west northwest then northwest during Friday. We are estimating landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime between 6PM on Friday and 6AM Saturday. Ocean water analysis shows some cooler water in place about 300 miles off the Texas coast then warmer water again right near the Texas coast in our primary projected landfall area. So, intensity forecast at landfall will be a real challenge. After Rita makes landfall it will head northwest between Austin and Houston then track between Dallas and Tyler during Sunday.
I've been busy triaging crap between “abandon”, “take” and “move to higher ground” categories, as well as take pictures of my stuff. I am quite vexed to have lost the cable used for transferring pictures from the camera to the computer. Discussed what to do about the systems with a friend; he suggested dismounting the HD's and taking them with me in ziploc bags. Capital idea; it will save me from having to wipe them.
You see, I am assuming that if the storm is Cat 4 at landfall and follows the projected path, due to a combination of either storm surge or wind (possibly tornado) that the house won't be here when I come back, or will have been severely damaged, possibly looted. It very well may be just fine, but I can't assume that. And a little extra work to toss lots of stuff in my car or the brother's truck will save a lot of hell later if that's the case.