The tracks from Ike are beginning to take a severe and pronounced rightward hook. From the 5 p.m. Eastern discussion:

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

In other words, the better models are putting Ike right in our “danger basket” of Freeport to High Island. Worse case scenario is crossing either Freeport or the western end of Galveston island. That would push a storm surge of around 19 feet (for a Cat 3) into the bay, flooding significant areas of La Marque, Kemah, Clear Lake, Pasadena, Baytown, lower Channelview, etc.

I am really concerned about the hurricane hype; apparently KHOU and KTRK are up to their usual “panic the rubes” stuff. The problem is they always panic the wrong people — Folks in Kingwood and the Woodlands are hyperventilating and showing up in Eric Berger’s chats, wanting to know if they should evacuate tomorrow.

Not just “no” but HELL NO. If these people get on the roads (again) then people in the areas that really need to be evac’d are going to be screwed. Let me point out that aside from Clear Lake, which is relatively upscale, a lot of the threatened area is occupied by people of (being generous here) extremely modest means. Taking off from work and evacuating is a signficant financial burden to these people. Add another reason for them to stay home, and we’ve got a setup for hundreds dead if we get, God forbid, a Cat 3 crossing the southern end of Galveston Island. A Cat 4 would be frightening. Eric wrote three years ago:

Houston’s perfect storm would feed on late summer’s warm waters as it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the coast near Freeport.

A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County

And at least one of the higher-accuracy models are bringing Ike ashore within 50 miles of that point, based on the current prediction. I’m not even going to think about a Cat 5.

Let’s be realistic, shall we? People are contrary and stubborn. The more the media runs around sounding like Chicken Little, the more some people will dig in and resist. That’s one reason why I was upset about the fuss over Edouard, which wasn’t a hell of a lot more than a glorified thunderstorm when it came ashore. (A very wet one, to be sure.) And the more hysterical the media gets, the less anyone listens to them.

As I said at the link, it’s tremendously disruptive to shut the city down; you cannot do that every little tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane out there. It’s not like we’re below sea level, like some other cities I could name. Now we’ve got the Real Deal about to bear down on us, and too many people I talk to are rolling their eyes. This is the storm people need to be watching carefully.

I doubt my criticism had anything to do with it, but after the Edouard mess, Eric Berger seems to have settled down and is taking a hard-headed, no-nonesense attitude towards Ike. He’s definitely regained my respect, and upped it some besides, for his tireless work. (Ok, I admit it, I probably overstated the case against him during Edouard, from sheer disgust at all the hype. I apologize, Eric.)

KHOU: Seven stories on their front page related to Ike.
KPRC: only two.
KTRK: Six stories.

At least nobody, not even Joe Bastardi is asking why we haven’t evac’d Houston yet. I guess there are some limits.

Edit: and just for the record, it would be extremely hard for me to repeat this event.

Edit 2: And lest anyone forget what the Rita evac was like, read this and this. It might remind folks why I’m a little upset over hype.