9:35

Might be last post. Power blinked again. 250k people without power by now. Estimates that there may be a few million without power, and it may take a couple of weeks to restore it inland, a month along the cost.

Outer bands about to hit my area.

There’s a lot of reporters in Galveston and the shore of the bay. Wonder how many of them we’re going to lose?

9:25 Update

Starting to rain here. (edit: not much, just a few drops.)

Channel 13 is running a graphic with only the originally announced zip codes to evac. Did they ever call for a full Zone A & B evac or not? The media doesn’t seem to know, and I’m not sure anyone else does. This lack of clarity is just stunning, 3 years after Rita. Did anyone read the playbook?

Update: Power blinked right after I posted this. I hear a levee failed in N.O.

8:55 Update

Stuck on Stupid.

GALVESTON — Despite a mandatory evacuation and ominous forecasts of a killer storm, police, firefighters and the Galveston Beach Patrol rescued dozens of residents Friday from the rising tides brought on by Hurricane Ike as it bears down on Galveston Island. Many had stayed on the island through numerous other hurricanes and were surprised by the height of the tidal surge. City officials estimated that as many as 40 percent of the island’s about 60,000 residents remained in their homes.

Good Lord. That’s twice what I expected. If that proportion is the same for for zones A and B (areas that “never flood”)…

US Census: Galveston county popuation, 283,551, for both island and mainland. Clear lake is 65k. Power’s getting iffy again, can’t research more.

Toss in southern Harris county near the bay, Chambers county and so on, if that % holds true, there could be 300,000-500,000 people at risk.

8:40 update

Let’s not forget Beaumont and Port Arthur. They’re going to be the “Baton Rouge” of Ike. Right now, the very worst part of the surge is aimed closer to them, and they don’t have have any of the coverage that we do. So they may well suffer like Baton Rouge (which is STILL over 30% out of power), while we play New Orleans and get all the air time and attention. Right now, I’d rather be here than there.

Ask me that again in six hours, if you can….

8:20 update

Last data from tide gauge at the Battleship Texas was a couple of hours ago. About 5 feet over normal:

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Date/Time Pre. Obs. Res. Wsp. Wdr. Wgt. Bar. Air Water Humid
(Local Time) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ft.) (ft.) (ft.) (kts.) (true) (kts.) (mb.) (oF) (oF) (%)
09/12/2008 00:00:00 CDT 0.63 1.89 1.26 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 81.7 86.2 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:06:00 CDT 0.62 1.89 1.27 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:12:00 CDT 0.60 1.90 1.30 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:18:00 CDT 0.59 1.90 1.31 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:24:00 CDT 0.58 1.91 1.33 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:30:00 CDT 0.57 1.91 1.34 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:36:00 CDT 0.56 1.91 1.35 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:42:00 CDT 0.55 1.92 1.37 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:48:00 CDT 0.54 1.93 1.39 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 00:54:00 CDT 0.53 1.95 1.42 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:00:00 CDT 0.53 1.96 1.43 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 80.8 86.0 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:06:00 CDT 0.52 1.97 1.45 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:12:00 CDT 0.52 1.99 1.47 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:18:00 CDT 0.52 2.01 1.49 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:24:00 CDT 0.51 2.02 1.51 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:30:00 CDT 0.51 2.04 1.53 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:36:00 CDT 0.51 2.06 1.55 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:42:00 CDT 0.52 2.07 1.55 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:48:00 CDT 0.52 2.09 1.57 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 01:54:00 CDT 0.52 2.11 1.59 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:00:00 CDT 0.52 2.13 1.61 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 80.4 86.0 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:06:00 CDT 0.53 2.15 1.62 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:12:00 CDT 0.54 2.17 1.63 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:18:00 CDT 0.55 2.19 1.64 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:24:00 CDT 0.56 2.20 1.64 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:30:00 CDT 0.57 2.22 1.65 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:36:00 CDT 0.58 2.24 1.66 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:42:00 CDT 0.59 2.26 1.67 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:48:00 CDT 0.61 2.28 1.67 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 02:54:00 CDT 0.62 2.30 1.68 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:00:00 CDT 0.64 2.32 1.68 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 80.8 85.8 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:06:00 CDT 0.66 2.35 1.69 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:12:00 CDT 0.68 2.38 1.70 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:18:00 CDT 0.70 2.41 1.71 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:24:00 CDT 0.72 2.44 1.72 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:30:00 CDT 0.73 2.47 1.74 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:36:00 CDT 0.76 2.51 1.75 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:42:00 CDT 0.78 2.55 1.77 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:48:00 CDT 0.80 2.59 1.79 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 03:54:00 CDT 0.83 2.62 1.79 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:00:00 CDT 0.85 2.67 1.82 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 80.6 85.8 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:06:00 CDT 0.88 2.71 1.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:12:00 CDT 0.90 2.75 1.85 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:18:00 CDT 0.93 2.78 1.85 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:24:00 CDT 0.95 2.81 1.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:30:00 CDT 0.98 2.84 1.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:36:00 CDT 1.01 2.87 1.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:42:00 CDT 1.03 2.90 1.87 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:48:00 CDT 1.06 2.93 1.87 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 04:54:00 CDT 1.09 2.96 1.87 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:00:00 CDT 1.12 2.99 1.87 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 79.9 85.6 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:06:00 CDT 1.15 3.01 1.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:12:00 CDT 1.17 3.03 1.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:18:00 CDT 1.20 3.06 1.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:24:00 CDT 1.23 3.08 1.85 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:30:00 CDT 1.26 3.10 1.84 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:36:00 CDT 1.29 3.12 1.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:42:00 CDT 1.32 3.13 1.81 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:48:00 CDT 1.35 3.15 1.80 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 05:54:00 CDT 1.37 3.17 1.80 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:00:00 CDT 1.40 3.20 1.80 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 79.7 85.6 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:06:00 CDT 1.43 3.21 1.78 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:12:00 CDT 1.46 3.23 1.77 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:18:00 CDT 1.49 3.26 1.77 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:24:00 CDT 1.51 3.28 1.77 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:30:00 CDT 1.54 3.30 1.76 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:36:00 CDT 1.56 3.33 1.77 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:42:00 CDT 1.59 3.35 1.76 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:48:00 CDT 1.61 3.37 1.76 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 06:54:00 CDT 1.64 3.41 1.77 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:00:00 CDT 1.66 3.44 1.78 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 79.3 85.6 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:06:00 CDT 1.68 3.47 1.79 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:12:00 CDT 1.71 3.51 1.80 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:18:00 CDT 1.73 3.53 1.80 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:24:00 CDT 1.75 3.56 1.81 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:30:00 CDT 1.77 3.59 1.82 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:36:00 CDT 1.78 3.61 1.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:42:00 CDT 1.80 3.62 1.82 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:48:00 CDT 1.82 3.64 1.82 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 07:54:00 CDT 1.83 3.66 1.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:00:00 CDT 1.85 3.68 1.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 80.4 85.5 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:06:00 CDT 1.86 3.70 1.84 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:12:00 CDT 1.88 3.73 1.85 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:18:00 CDT 1.89 3.77 1.88 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:24:00 CDT 1.90 3.81 1.91 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:30:00 CDT 1.91 3.84 1.93 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:36:00 CDT 1.92 3.87 1.95 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:42:00 CDT 1.93 3.90 1.97 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:48:00 CDT 1.94 3.93 1.99 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 08:54:00 CDT 1.94 3.96 2.02 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:00:00 CDT 1.95 3.99 2.04 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 82.8 85.5 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:06:00 CDT 1.95 4.01 2.06 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:12:00 CDT 1.96 4.03 2.07 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:18:00 CDT 1.96 4.04 2.08 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:24:00 CDT 1.96 4.06 2.10 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:30:00 CDT 1.97 4.07 2.10 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:36:00 CDT 1.97 4.09 2.12 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:42:00 CDT 1.97 4.11 2.14 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:48:00 CDT 1.97 4.12 2.15 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 09:54:00 CDT 1.96 4.15 2.19 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:00:00 CDT 1.96 4.17 2.21 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 84.4 85.3 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:06:00 CDT 1.96 4.20 2.24 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:12:00 CDT 1.96 4.22 2.26 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:18:00 CDT 1.95 4.25 2.30 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:24:00 CDT 1.95 4.27 2.32 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:30:00 CDT 1.94 4.28 2.34 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:36:00 CDT 1.94 4.31 2.37 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:42:00 CDT 1.93 4.34 2.41 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:48:00 CDT 1.93 4.36 2.43 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 10:54:00 CDT 1.92 4.39 2.47 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:00:00 CDT 1.91 4.43 2.52 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 85.5 85.3 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:06:00 CDT 1.90 4.46 2.56 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:12:00 CDT 1.89 4.49 2.60 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:18:00 CDT 1.89 4.52 2.63 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:24:00 CDT 1.88 4.56 2.68 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:30:00 CDT 1.87 4.60 2.73 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:36:00 CDT 1.86 4.64 2.78 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:42:00 CDT 1.85 4.67 2.82 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:48:00 CDT 1.83 4.71 2.88 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 11:54:00 CDT 1.82 4.74 2.92 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:00:00 CDT 1.81 4.78 2.97 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 85.5 85.5 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:06:00 CDT 1.80 4.82 3.02 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:12:00 CDT 1.79 4.85 3.06 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:18:00 CDT 1.78 4.88 3.10 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:24:00 CDT 1.77 4.90 3.13 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:30:00 CDT 1.75 4.94 3.19 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:36:00 CDT 1.74 4.97 3.23 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:42:00 CDT 1.73 5.00 3.27 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:48:00 CDT 1.72 5.03 3.31 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 12:54:00 CDT 1.71 5.06 3.35 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:00:00 CDT 1.70 5.10 3.40 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 86.2 85.6 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:06:00 CDT 1.69 5.12 3.43 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:12:00 CDT 1.67 5.16 3.49 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:18:00 CDT 1.66 5.19 3.53 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:24:00 CDT 1.65 5.23 3.58 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:30:00 CDT 1.64 5.27 3.63 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:36:00 CDT 1.64 5.31 3.67 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:42:00 CDT 1.63 5.35 3.72 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:48:00 CDT 1.62 5.40 3.78 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 13:54:00 CDT 1.61 5.45 3.84 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:00:00 CDT 1.60 5.50 3.90 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 84.7 85.8 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:06:00 CDT 1.60 5.56 3.96 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:12:00 CDT 1.59 5.60 4.01 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:18:00 CDT 1.59 5.65 4.06 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:24:00 CDT 1.58 5.69 4.11 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:30:00 CDT 1.58 5.73 4.15 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:36:00 CDT 1.57 5.76 4.19 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:42:00 CDT 1.57 5.79 4.22 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:48:00 CDT 1.57 5.82 4.25 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 14:54:00 CDT 1.56 5.86 4.30 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:00:00 CDT 1.56 5.90 4.34 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 84.0 86.0 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:06:00 CDT 1.56 5.95 4.39 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:12:00 CDT 1.56 6.00 4.44 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:18:00 CDT 1.56 6.05 4.49 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:24:00 CDT 1.56 6.10 4.54 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:30:00 CDT 1.56 6.16 4.60 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:36:00 CDT 1.56 6.22 4.66 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:42:00 CDT 1.56 6.28 4.72 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:48:00 CDT 1.56 6.34 4.78 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 15:54:00 CDT 1.57 6.38 4.81 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:00:00 CDT 1.57 6.43 4.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 85.6 86.0 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:06:00 CDT 1.57 6.47 4.90 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:12:00 CDT 1.57 6.51 4.94 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:18:00 CDT 1.58 6.54 4.96 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:24:00 CDT 1.58 6.58 5.00 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:30:00 CDT 1.58 6.61 5.03 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:36:00 CDT 1.59 6.64 5.05 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:42:00 CDT 1.59 6.66 5.07 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:48:00 CDT 1.59 6.67 5.08 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 16:54:00 CDT 1.60 6.68 5.08 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:00:00 CDT 1.60 6.69 5.09 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 84.2 86.0 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:06:00 CDT 1.60 6.69 5.09 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:12:00 CDT 1.60 6.70 5.10 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:18:00 CDT 1.61 6.69 5.08 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:24:00 CDT 1.61 6.67 5.06 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:30:00 CDT 1.61 6.64 5.03 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:36:00 CDT 1.62 6.61 4.99 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:42:00 CDT 1.62 6.57 4.95 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:48:00 CDT 1.62 6.53 4.91 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 17:54:00 CDT 1.62 6.52 4.90 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:00:00 CDT 1.62 6.51 4.89 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 83.7 85.8 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:06:00 CDT 1.62 6.48 4.86 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:12:00 CDT 1.63 6.47 4.84 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:18:00 CDT 1.63 6.46 4.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:24:00 CDT 1.63 6.45 4.82 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:30:00 CDT 1.62 6.45 4.83 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:36:00 CDT 1.62 6.41 4.79 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:42:00 CDT 1.62 6.41 4.79 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:48:00 CDT 1.62 6.41 4.79 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9
09/12/2008 18:54:00 CDT 1.62 6.40 4.78 -999 -999 -999 -999.9 -99.9 -99.9 -999.9

$6.00 a Gallon Gas?

From Dr. Jeff Masters:

I’ve given the mistaken impression that the Galveston sea wall will save the city from inundation. That is not the case. The wall merely protects the city from a frontal assault by the storm surge and the 20 foot waves likely to be on top of the surge. Ike will flood the city of Galveston. However, the predicted level of surge will be just beneath the sea wall. If the surge exceeds the 17 foot forecast, it will overtop the sea wall and act like a battering ram against the buildings in Galveston. It is also possible that the sea wall will be destroyed along some sections, allowing the ocean direct access to Galveston.

The situation is also grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city’s seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Rita gave us a wake-up call. Nobody answered.

Ike, The Landing

Going to quickie twitter-style posts now until I lose power.

7pm: wind is picking up. Concerned about gas storage; have to keep it outside due to fumes. Started to move it indoors and cut hot water heater. Decided was too much fumes to risk, moved it back out. Burning Down the House needs to remain a song. Yacht storage on fire in Galveston. Rain bands hitting southern Houston, nothing here yet.

Ike Day One, Afternoon Report (Complete)

The enemy: Greens Bayou, about noon. This is not much above sea level, as it feeds directly into the ship channel. I have seen it far enough out of its banks to close off the road I was on as I took this picture; the bridge and a bit of ramp was left sticking out of the water.

Here’s the flood gauge station map for Harris County. You can double-click the dots; gauge for this point is #1619 1613, sorry.

Now here’s the same point at 5pm today. Can’t see much difference in the photo, due to the change in angle, but it was visibly higher.

After a two hour nap, I started working on the “morning” blog post again, but stopped as we decided not to have all our eggs in one basket. We moved one vehicle to a relative’s house about three miles away. The idea is, hopefully at least one will remain undamaged and unblocked by fallen debris. Though I don’t care for having to walk to get it, if that’s the case.

Quickie observations:

  • HCOEM front page still only has the limited evac from a few zip codes listed on the front page. Don’t they have anyone in the emergency center who can update that? Did anyone depend on it for information this morning? I hope not.
  • The wind hasn’t picked up yet as of 5pm CDT. Still out of the south.
  • Confirmed; the apartment parking lots are full. I see evidence that a number of families in houses have evac’d, though not a lot. This is the one everyone needed to evac for, but they’ve stayed thanks to hurricane and hype fatigue. God I hope the folks in the evac zones didn’t do the same thing, but I’m sure many did.
  • Almost everything is closed now. A few gas stations and small convenience stores are open.
  • Not many boarded homes, but more than this morning. Unsurprisingly, it seems to be more by economics than anything else. Nicer the neighborhood, the more houses are boarded.
  • In one neighborhood we drove through, full of elderly and immigrants, they are going to take a huge amount of debris damage. I cannot believe the amount of crap these people left in their yards. Plants, toys, junk, you name it.
  • Saw some trailers. Clearly, people still in them. Let’s hear it for Darwin.
  • A lot of people were sitting out in their front yards. Couples, families, guys who looked like they’d just finished boarding up and were enjoying a beer. Everyone’s watching the sky.
  • Hotel near I-10 flooded; it was being evacuated when we drove by. This place always floods in a heavy storm; the city or government should figure out some way to buy it out or shut it down; it has absolutely NO business being in operation during a hurricane strike. I couldn’t get a better picture because I was trying to snap that one while dodging all the other folks pulling over to watch, take pictures, etc.
  • In all likelihood, I-10 east at the San Jac river is going underwater soon, if it isn’t already. Hmm. Very soon.

    Galveston Bay entrance buoy information at 5:30: