Over at BlogHouston, this thread got a response from the Chronicle to questions raised by Kevin and Evan over the poll data behind the headline I posted the other day.

This “certain and likely Republican primary voters” tab is the source of the 39 percent figure on DeLay GOP primary support; we’ve posted it to the site.

Crosstab Info

So if I’m reading that correctly, DeLay’s support among:

Voters certain to vote in the Republican primary = 54.4% Very or Somewhat Favorable.
Voters certain or likely to vote in the Rep. primary = 50.2% Very or Somewhat Favorable

But the figure that the Chronicle chose to stress was the answer to:
“Four candidates are running in the Republican Primary being held in the 22nd Congressional district. If the election were held today, which of these candidates would you most likely vote for?”
Tom Delay = 38.5%
Despite the fact that:
Don’t know or refused to answer = 52.1%

A rather high %, I agree, especialy in comparison with the 58.2% of respondents that voted for Tom Delay last time.

I would have liked to know how many answered “don’t know” as opposed refusing to answer. I can live with that absence, but for this data to be put into perspective, we should see three more things:

1. A comparison of other Representatives’ districts, and how their support is faring this far ahead of the election.
2. For the blurb I linked here to be correct (or at least substantiated) prior polls taken in the 22nd district need to be shown for comparison.
3. The actual percentage of voters DeLay had in 2004.

I found the latter:

2004 District Results (congressional)
Tom DeLay (R): 55.2%
Richard Morrison (D): 41.1%

2002 District Results (congressional)
Tom DeLay (R): 63 percent
Tim Riley (D): 35 percent

These figures are of course, % of all voters, not just Republican or likely to vote in the Repub. primary.

I agree that the current figures seem low for a Representative of DeLay’s seniority, but looking at the trend, it’s entirely possible that his support is eroding for other reasons, a subject that this poll asked no questions regarding. Possible culprits in the drop are his interference in the Texas redistricting, fallout over interfering with Metro rail for years, or even his pro-pork statements recently. (They certainly all turn me off, more than the whole campaign finance thing, but that’s an article in and of itself. Someday.) Anyway, I suspect he’s quite vulnerable to attacks from his base on the subject of pork. This really has a lot of people riled right now, even to the point of disliking their own congressman, something that has been reflected in a nationwide campaign to put pressure on local congress-critters.

It would be nice if the Chronicle followed up on that and tried to find out why his support is slipping, rather than just assuming it’s due to their unending attacks on his legal problems.

Update: and the fun continues: here, here, and here. Get a load of that response. A sneer, a put down, and an irrelevant change of subject; favorite rhetorical trick of liberal non-debaters. Nobody questions whether DeLay’s wife and daughter are his partisans. The Chronicle’s neutrality on the other hand, is looking to be more in tatters by the day.