Natonal Hurricane Center update here.
Basically, the wind is beginning to pick up, and the course has changed slightly northwards. Pressure has dropped to 999mb and maximum sustained winds are 60mph; the storm is moving at 8mph. The rainfall predictions for Texas have been increased to 4-6 inches with up to 10 inches locally. The discussion notes that there are several factors against further growth, but there are also convective bursts occurring at times on the south side of the storm. Overall, they’re assigning less than a 10% chance that it will make hurricane status. But if my memory serves me correctly, at this point, Allison was expected to drop only 6-9 inches of rain, with a max of 15 inches locally.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE SHEAR…
POSSIBLE DRY AIR…AND RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ARGUE AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER…THE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
STRENGTHENING…AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE
LANDFALL. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LANDFALL AS A 55-60 KT TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER…THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE STORM COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE
IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL…EDOUARD SHOULD
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
Conventional wisdom always says that the storms will turn north and east. Much of the panic buying is from people who know that conventional wisdom is worth exactly nothing when you’re suffering from a flooded house, 95 degree heat, 70% humidity, and obviously, no power. And hell, all the bought water will keep…but what are we going to do with 30 gallons of gas, if the storm doesn’t hit?
1 AM update: Now the NWS has dropped the max wind prediction to 65 mph, and indicates that a more northward track is likely, although it might not fully take hold until after landfall.