Out and about this morning, and I picked up some last-minute supplies. We’re now stocked up with about 50-60 gallons of gas, probably 30 gallons of water, plenty of food, first aid items, flashlights, batteries, a crank radio with weather band, and of course, the generator and portable a/c unit. We’re adding a spare car battery and a power inverter for emergency use while power is out during the storm. And of course, the boarding of the windows has started

That makes us probably among the best prepared households; certainly in the top 5-10%.

But I’m rather concerned that as of midday, I’ve seen only a couple of stores and two other houses start to board up. It’s like they think they can wait until tomorrow — unfortunately, due to Ike’s huge wind field, they can’t. As for the homes, well most won’t board up — as I said before, there isn’t enough lumber in all of Houston to board up all of Houston. It’s possible that most people are either still at work or trying to get what they need to board up. I don’t envy them the lines. (See pictures below the fold of some parking lots.)

But its the official evacuation orders that concern me. As I posted before, the Houston-Gavleston area is divided up into multiple zones, and they are supposed to be staggered. Well, if Ike were a typical Cat 2 hurricane, the Coastal and A zones are supposed to be evac’d. B is evac’d for a Cat 3, and C has to bail in a 4 or 5. So even if Ike is taken at face value as a category two, they should be pulling everyone out of zones Coastal and A.

They’re not…. exactly. Instead, mandatory evacuation has been called for Galveston Island, and the Bolivar peninsula, and the various small municipalities in northern Galveston county have also made their own calls. But I can’t find anything to indicate that the Galveston county authorities have even called for a voluntary evacuation of the unincorporated areas.

During a press conference at Houston TranStar, Judge Emmett added Pasadena ZIP code 77507 to the already announced mandatory evacuations list. Already on the evacuation list are people in ZIP codes: 77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586 and 77598.

Here’s the map of the evacuation zones: (note, it is NOT complete at this time; many small municipalities in zone A have called evacs and I havent’ marked them yet for lack of time. Please refer to an appropriate media outlet for your evacuation news)

Notice what’s missing in Zone B? The upper end of the bay. A prediction of 15′-17′ storm surge is the given right now, and it could be worse. Why haven’t 77522 and 77523 been included? (77520 is, but I failed to mark it, FYI). These two are low, low low, and at the very end of the bay. They are at the far east end of Harris County; they’re partially covered by Baytown, but not entirely. Is Harris County deferring to Baytown? And does Baytown have these zips on their mind?

After the mess of Rita, the governor’s office stepped in and dictated that emergency planning and evacuation calls would be done on a regional basis. Local officials didn’t like that at all, and I also argued against it I feared that an Austin bureaucrat would know less about the local conditions than the local officials, and make bad calls. I’m now wondering if I was right to think that.

I’ll try to develop that thought more later, when I have some time.

I’m not seeing a lot of windows being boarded up yet. Folks could be at work or trying to get lumber.

Update: Brenden Loy says all of Zone A and B have been called for evac. I might have missed the additional zip codes, as I’ve been to busy to keep up. But I just haven’t been seeing the sense of urgency from the Harris County officials that I’d expect. I may change that opinion after I catch up on the news. I can’t say the same about the Houston NWS:

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY! ALL NEIGHBORHOODS…AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED…SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.

Update 2: Ok, I missed the news conference a couple of hours ago, and the media was still playing catch-up on their websites. All of A and B are now under evac orders.

Update 3: I called it. In an e-mail discussion with Steven Den Beste last night, I noted:

I mean, if there’s an emergency, any drivers that live in the area are going to want to stay with their families and take care of them. So absenteeism skyrockets. I don’t really expect better here. (The last day before Rita, almost all of the TSA personnel failed to report to work at IAH.)

Granted this is only 2 buses… that we know of.

And in the last 20 minutes, it has clouded up and is acting like it wants to rain. (see note on the last picture below the fold.)

And now, back to the pictures.

Kroger’s 8:30 AM this morning, was a touch busy.

Home Depot and Acadamy Sports were also popular sites early this morning.

Circuit City, not so much.

Wal-Mart was insane. Was it Christmas or something?

Notice the sky this morning? I’ve been told that unnatural lack of clouds is a probable signal of a hurricane on the way.

A couple of hours later, it clouded up and looked like rain for a bit, then it mostly cleared out.

Just overheard, Continental is ending flights out of IAH tomorrow; Delta and another airline have no flights out of Hobby tomorrow.

More when I have time; I’ve been working on this post for four hours because of having to stop to get things ready.