From Dr. Jeff Masters:

If you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike’s eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike’s highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 15 feet or higher. Photos taken by the Coast Guard yesterday (Figure 2) of the Bolivar Peninsula show damage characteristic of a 15+ foot high storm surge–homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. The hurricane probably cut new channels through the peninsula, and it will be difficult for rescuers to reach the area.

Some have criticized the National Weather Service for overwarning, with their pronouncement of “certain death” for those who ignored evacuation orders. Well, I don’t think anyone in the Bolivar Peninsula will complain that they were overwarned. While death was not certain among those who weathered the storm in houses pulverized by the storm surge, it was probable. According to the New York Times, one Bolivar Peninsula resident was washed all the way across across Galveston Bay to the mainland after the storm surge destroyed his house and threw him into the water. A helicopter picked him up. So far, there are two confimed deaths on the peninsula, from the town of Port Bolivar. The peninsula had a population of 3,800, of which 500 did not evacuate. As many as 90 people were rescued from the peninsula in the hours leading up to the storm, but at least 400 people remained. Most of these people are as yet unaccounted for. According to news reports, 80% of the buildings on the peninsula were destroyed.

I’ve seen pictures taken by the Channel 11 and 13 helicopters flying by… assuming they were trying to find the worst areas to show, 80% is probably about right. And if that 15+ feet had been crammed into Galveston Bay, it would have been 18-22 feet, as predicted. In other words, neither the NWS, Brendan Loy, Eric Berger, myself, or anyone else who cried “wolf” was wrong. Ike went over the north end of the island, which as Eric pointed out, put the worst surge onto the Bolivar Peninsula-High Island area. Houston dodged the bullet, but Gilchrist and Crystal Beach were caught in front of a loaded cannon.