I’m home. I had some pithy things to say, but as usual, I've forgotten them before getting a chance to post. I do my best thinking while driving, but it's hell trying to type on a keyboard at 75mph. Also a bit unsafe.
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Monthly Archives: September 2005
Escape complete
(Crossposted to Brendan Loy's site (in comments), as I'm on dial-up and not certain how my site's going to react, also he is better read)
I made it out of Houston–to the North east. We were well prepared, but what should have been a 1.5 hr drive from eastern houston to Woodville (n. of Beaumont) turned into a SEVEN-hour trek. once we got past it, we were in good shape, but it made the whole drive last 12 hours instead of the usual 6.5. We left at 4 a.m…. and it still wasn't early enough.
Escape From Houston
Well, that is it, I'm packed, except for removing the HD's from the computers, personal toiletries, and the computer I am taking with me. A few hours of sleep, then we cut the gas, unplug everything, pack the last items, put the dogs in the cages and run like hell.
You'll have to check this guy's log for excitement now.
Edit: I just checked NOAA's website. Oh. F*ck. I was really beginning to think, maybe it would go to Matagorda and we'd miss the bullet… Crap. Well, say goodbye to the house.
Getting Ready
NOTE: UPDATES MOVED TO EXTENDED ENTRY, CLICK “READ MORE.” Updated at 3pm, delayed due to technical problems. (updates will continue until approx. 5pm. Now on Update # 10 11 12)
Where I sit at work is in danger of flooding, so I have plenty of prep work today. Don't fully trust our IT department to have my work backed up against a Cat 4 hurricane. Had a spare camera cable at work, so I've got that problem solved.
Update from Accuweather:
We are estimating landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime between 6 p.m. on Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. Rita will continue to track westward through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday with further strengthening possible as it crosses the same warm waters that helped Katrina strengthen into a category 5 storm. It is not out of the question that Rita could also become a Category 5 hurricane Thursday into Friday.
More updates through the day as I can manage them.
Here Comes Rita
Accuweather says it best.
The track that Rita takes will depend on how this upper-level high moves, weakens and strengthens. Our current thoughts are that the high will remain strong and in place to keep Rita on a westward moving course through Thursday. Then we expect the high to either split or move eastward causing Rita to move west-northwest early Friday then more northwestward Friday night and Saturday. As stated, Rita will become a major hurricane within the next 12 hours. The hurricane might level off in intensity for a time as it moves through slightly cooler water. This cooler water appears to be in the same area that Katrina tracked over. Then as the hurricane moves due west it will be back over warmer waters similar to what helped Katrina intensify to a Cat 5 hurricane. We expect Rita to slowly turn west northwest then northwest during Friday. We are estimating landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime between 6PM on Friday and 6AM Saturday. Ocean water analysis shows some cooler water in place about 300 miles off the Texas coast then warmer water again right near the Texas coast in our primary projected landfall area. So, intensity forecast at landfall will be a real challenge. After Rita makes landfall it will head northwest between Austin and Houston then track between Dallas and Tyler during Sunday.
I've been busy triaging crap between “abandon”, “take” and “move to higher ground” categories, as well as take pictures of my stuff. I am quite vexed to have lost the cable used for transferring pictures from the camera to the computer. Discussed what to do about the systems with a friend; he suggested dismounting the HD's and taking them with me in ziploc bags. Capital idea; it will save me from having to wipe them.
You see, I am assuming that if the storm is Cat 4 at landfall and follows the projected path, due to a combination of either storm surge or wind (possibly tornado) that the house won't be here when I come back, or will have been severely damaged, possibly looted. It very well may be just fine, but I can't assume that. And a little extra work to toss lots of stuff in my car or the brother's truck will save a lot of hell later if that's the case.
Bullseye: Houston
Northstar, over at the People's Republic, discusses what would happen if Houston gets hit by the 'big one.' It ain't pretty. Another hit like Katrina anywhere on the Gulf Coast, and we could see folks deciding that freezing their asses off in winter ain't so bad after all.Northstar quotes someone else, (but I'm not clear whom):First, you need to understand the dimensions of the future calamity. The Texas Division of Emergency Management, or DEM, produces a storm surge maps that show how far hurricanes of various strengths will push water onto the mainland. According to these projections, a Category 4-5 storm will flood virtually all of Galveston County, all of Clear Lake, the East Side to Loop 610, all of Baytown south of I-10 and about half of Brazoria County. The surge will be 20-25 feet high. That means every house in Clear Lake will have water over its roof or up to the second story. The only structures that will be visible in Kemah will be the Boardwalk Tower ride and the roofs of the three-story restaurants. Riding out a Category 4-5 storm within the flood surge area is simply not a survivable option.
And that does not count the flooding that will occur upstream from the torrential rains. Tropical Storm Claudette dropped 40 inches of rain on Alvin in 1979 in 24 hours, creating a nightmare. When a 25-foot storm surge dams up that water downstream, the flood stages upstream become almost too fantastic to believe. Some predict that I-45 will be under 20 feet of water at the Clear Creek bridge.Go here, and click the Galveston area map… and remember this is just the water coming IN from the Gulf. It's not the rainwater dumped by the storm unable to get out. For some idea of that, take a look at the flood plain maps.Accuweather.com has now predicted the storm WILL reach Category 5, not 3 as the Weather Service is saying.
NO, cat does not refer to a friendly house pet. It is the scale used to designate the destructive power of a hurricane. A category 1 hurricane has winds from 74 to 95 mph while a category 5 storm has winds over 155 mph. The strength of a hurricane is the product of the sea surface temperature and the overall flow in the proximity of the storm. The ideal setup for a major hurricane is ocean water temperatures in the middle 80s or higher and high pressure centered north of the storm track. In the case of Rita, both conditions will be satisfied, and the hurricane is likely to become quite strong. It will turn into at least a category 4 hurricane and has a chance to reach category 5 status. Then there are the super hurricanes like Katrina that achieved winds of 175 mph. We don't think Rita will become that powerful, but this latest hurricane is fast becoming a serious threat to the Texas Coast. JunkyardBlog, where I was pointed to this prediction, says it is by Joe Bastardi, the first guy to say Katrina would be a Cat 4 or 5. However, it's signed “John Kocet.” It remains to be seen whether the guys at Accuweather are just Chicken Littles who got lucky, or are the real deal. I”ll have much more later. If I have time.
I hate being right….
That didn't take long. They should have listened to Scotty.
Things that Piss Me Off
Jackasses spending my tax dollars at strip clubs when I don't make enough to enjoy them myself.
F'ing ingrates. (See the sixth paragraph.)
Men of God who aren't.
Lots of other things, I'm sure I'll think of more.
Update 9/16:
People who didn't listen to Scotty: “Fool me once, shame on you…”
People who lie on camera to score political points. Blatantly. Shamelessly.
People who lie about (and excuse) the liars.
Being next. Ok, that doesn't p*ss me off as much as that scares the p*ss out of me. I have a firm rule. I don't get blown away by hurricanes, and that sucker will be Cat 2-4 when it arrives. Cat 1 is ok, but hey, Allison wasn't even a tropical storm anymore when she dropped 3 feet of rain on us. A Cat 2 and I might risk staying. A 3 and I'm outta here.
People who think talking solves everything.
Why Ubu?
(Edit: before I decided to start moving posts from the PN days to WordPress, I reposted this under “Why Ubu, Redoux” in October. )
So… why did I pick such a weird name as “Ubu” to post under, anyway? What the hell kind of name is that? Well, I got my start posting comments over at the Rottweiller and hey, it was a dog's name. Actually, it was a TV production company's name. At the end of every episode of Family Ties they'd show the company's logo and go “Sit, Ubu, Sit!” Their logo was a dog, and he'd bark. And hey I needed a name to post under and it was the only doggie-themed name to come to mind. Well other than Lassie or Old Yeller, and I am definately not a girl, nor rabid, dammit.
Well, I'm not a girl anyway. It was much later that I Googled the name and found out it has a history…
The plays of Alfred Jarry are considered by many to be the first dramatic works of the theatre of the absurd. They are credited with a great number of literary innovations and are seen as major influences of the dada and symbolist movements in art. Ubu Roi (translated as King Ubu and King Turd) is Jarry’s most famous work… In his book Jarry: Ubu Roi, Keith Beaumont detailed three accusations that were made against Ubu Roi by spectators and critics in the aftermath of the outrageous performance. The first focused on the play’s ‘‘alleged’’ vulgarity and obscenity. Secondly, perhaps in view of the political atmosphere of the time, critics condemned the play and its performance as the theatrical equivalent of an ‘‘anarchist’’ bomb attack and as an act of political subversion. The third accusation leveled against the play and its performance was that they in no way constituted a ‘‘serious’’ piece of literature or of theater but rather a gigantic hoax.
Stunning! It would have been more difficult to be more relevant to my internet postings. In my writings, I agree with all three interpretations.
(read more….)
First, the “'alleged' vulgarity and obscenity.” Well, as we all know, times change. Ubu Roi today would be considered little more than a fairly mild avant garde play, instead of a precursor to the coming of the Antichrist. And as readers will note, I'm not much for avoiding profanity or vulgarity. When I'm writing a thoughtful and rational post, I'm not likely to engage in it much. But when shit like Kelo vs. Scum of New London comes along, I go for the Anglo-Saxon gutterals. (Or as Bujold has her character Ingrey remark in Hallowed Hunt, “What, you don't know all those short words?”) Additionally, the whole blogsphere, inasmuch as it compares to the “Professional Journalist,” is an obscene and vulgar undertaking. In their all-important view anyway.
Second, the “anarchists” of the 1880's and 90's are one of the most distorted bits of our history, and one case where I actually agree with the idea of revisionist history. (As in, it needs revising). Because of the poor state of our schools today, I've got to explain this one a bit. Bluntly, the increasing urbanization and industrialization of Europe and America resulted in (and from) a huge social upheaveal, in which the robber barons made their fortunes by exploiting workers. “Workplace safety” and “fair wages” didn't even exist as a joke. It was in this atmosphere that Marx wrote his Manifesto, and the U.S suffered a spate of terrorist bombings and even the second ever assassination of a president. The “powers that be” labeled the bombers “anarchists” and ignored their social and political commentary. Worse, they tried very hard to discredit their less radical brethren, especially among the disreputable “muckrakers” in the press — although they were never entirely successful in doing so. So the metephor of “tossing an anarchist bomb” at the powers that be (in a literary, not literal, sense) through my writing appeals to me. This is the single best parallel to me, and the one that made me decide to keep it.
Then there's the last one: “The third accusation leveled against the play and its performance was that they in no way constituted a ‘‘serious’’ piece of literature or of theater but rather a gigantic hoax.” To me, this circles back to the words theater of the absurd. Which is exactly what our politics are today, with a media that is far to the left of the country it serves; reporters and producers trying to throw presidential elections, and spinmeisters printing the verbatim talking points of one political party. It doesn't get more absurd than the reporters of facts thinking they are the shapers of opinion. (I am so reminded of Gulliver's Travels, only substitute the press for the functionary with the feather and bladder.) Well, Houblog is no hoax, but hey, anyone who thinks of it as a “serious piece of literature” is either highly deluded, or … well, very highly deluded.
I think I'm going to start going with Ubu Roi more, to see if people start catching the reference.
–Ubu Roi
9/16/05